Could the U.S. run out of assignable phone numbers? Some believe that by the time 10-digit numbers run out completely, the world will have moved from telephony toward internet-based calling.
美国的可分配电话号码会用完吗?一些人认为，到10位数号码完全用完的时候，世界将从电话转向基于互联网的通话。
Phone numbers, as we know them, may be endangered. While there are billions of potential digit combinations, it's not an infinite number. Eventually, it's very possible we'll have used up every available phone number.
我们所熟知的电话号码可能会受到威胁。虽然有数十亿种潜在的数字组合，但它不是一个无限大的数字。最终，我们很可能会用完所有可用的电话号码。
Most people are familiar with the modern 10-digit U.S. phone number with an area code. But that's actually a fairly recent invention.
大多数人都熟悉带区号的现代10位美国电话号码。但这其实是最近才有的发明。
Contents 目录
- The History of Phone Numbers 电话号码的历史
- The Introduction of the Area Code 地区代码的介绍
- Are Phone Numbers Recycled? 电话号码是循环利用的吗?
- What Will Happen When the Numbers Run Out? 当数字用完会发生什么?
Prior to the 1960s, the telephone system used something called the 2L-5N — or two letters, five numbers — format. The letters would be the first two letters of a word, typically the name of a neighborhood, and the numbers corresponded to the individual you were calling. An oft-cited example is Lucy and Ricky Ricardo's phone on the TV show "I Love Lucy." Their phone number was MU 5-9975, for their Murray Hill neighborhood.
在20世纪60年代之前，电话系统使用一种叫做2L-5N的格式，即两个字母，五个数字。这些字母是一个单词的前两个字母，通常是一个社区的名字，而数字则与你要呼叫的人对应。一个经常被引用的例子是电视节目“我爱露西”中露西和里基·里卡多的手机。他们的电话号码是穆雷山社区MU 5-9975。
To dial a phone number in those days, you'd pick up the phone and speak to a real human operator, who'd physically plug you into the telephone network you were trying to reach. It was easy enough to do for local calls, but long distance got a bit complicated, and as the phone network grew, it called for a new system. A seven-digit system called "all number calling" ditched the letters. Instead, the first three digits corresponded to a telephone provider, while the last four identified the phone-owner. Soon, even that wasn't enough.
在那个年代，要拨打一个电话号码，你得拿起电话，和一个真正的接线员交谈，他会把你插入你想要连接的电话网络。打本地电话很容易，但打长途电话就有点复杂了。随着电话网络的发展，需要一种新的系统。一种名为“全号码呼叫”的七位数系统抛弃了字母。相反，前三位数字对应的是电话供应商，而后四位数字则是手机所有者。很快，就连这也不够了。
The Introduction of the Area Code 地区代码的介绍
Enter the area code. In 1951, the North American Numbering Plan Administrator (NANPA) — governors of the U.S. phone number system — added the first three-digit area code, New Jersey's, which was 201. At first, there were 86 area codes. Currently there are 335 total area codes, but the phone numbers associated with them are going fast.
加入了区号。1951年，北美号码规划管理局(NANPA)——美国电话号码系统的管理者——添加了第一个三位数的区号，即新泽西的201。起初，有86个区号。目前总共有335个区号，但与之相关的电话号码正在快速增加。
"There are area codes that become exhausted," says Kylie Dick, a sales manager for phone number management company NumberBarn. "There's only a certain number of them within each, and once they're gone, they're gone."
电话号码管理公司NumberBarn的销售经理凯莉·迪克(Kylie Dick)说:“区号已经用完了。“每个区内只有一定数量的号码，一旦他们用完了，就没有了。”
Are Phone Numbers Recycled? 电话号码是循环利用的吗?That's not to say numbers don't sometimes reenter circulation. "We get a lot of customers asking if we have a 'fresh, clean, unused number,'" says Dick. "At this point, most numbers are 'recycled,' so at one point in their history they were probably used by someone and then [the numbers] went back to the carrier."
这并不是说数字有时不会重新进入流通。迪克说:“很多客户问我们是否有‘新鲜、干净、未使用过的号码’。”“在这一点上，大多数号码都是‘回收的’，所以在历史上的某个时刻，它们可能被某人使用过，然后(这些号码)又回到了运营商手中。”
But when an area code is close to being "exhausted," meaning all its numbers have been assigned, NANPA introduces a new area code for that region. But area codes, too, are finite. There are 800 possible three-digit combinations (using 0 or 1 as the first digit of an area code is invalid), but many are unusable (think 911) or reserved for official use. Ultimately, the math works out to a bit more than 5 billion total available phone numbers. In North America, well over half of those are already assigned.
但是，当一个区号接近“耗尽”时，即所有号码都已分配完毕，NANPA将为该区域引入一个新的区号。但区号也是有限的。有800种可能的三位数组合(使用0或1作为区号的第一个数字是无效的)，但许多都无法使用(比如911)或仅供官方使用。最终，计算出来的可用电话号码总数略多于50亿个。在北美，超过一半的号码已经被分配了。
What Will Happen When the Numbers Run Out? 当数字用完会发生什么?Some plans have been proposed to add more digits. A report created by the Alliance For Telecommunications Industry Solutions explained that adding one digit to the area code and one to the dialing prefix would create an additional 640 billion possible numbers. But it would be much easier said than done: Everything formatted for a 10-digit number would have to be altered to work with two extra digits.
有人提出了增加更多数字的计划。电信行业解决方案联盟(Alliance For Telecommunications Industry Solutions)发布的一份报告解释说，在区号和拨号字冠上分别增加一个数字，就会增加6400亿个可能的号码。但说起来容易做起来难:所有格式化为10位数字的东西都必须修改，以适应额外的两位数字。
Others believe that by the time 10-digit numbers near total exhaustion, the world will have transitioned away from telephony and toward internet-based calling. In that future, it's difficult to believe 10-digit numbers would be anything but obsolete. "One way or another, your phone number will eventually become a coding afterthought," wrote Drew Magary for Vice.
另一些人则认为，当10位数的数字接近枯竭时，世界将从电话过渡到基于互联网的通话。未来，很难相信10位数字还会过时。德鲁·马格里在Vice网站上写道:“不管怎样，你的电话号码最终都会变成事后补救的编码。”
We're certainly not there yet though, says Dick. Phone numbers remain a hot commodity, and the shortage of certain desirable numbers or area codes only serves to increase demand.
迪克说:“当然，我们还没有到那一步。”电话号码仍然是热门商品，某些理想号码或区号的短缺只会增加需求。
"There are certain patterns of numbers that people are trying to purchase," she says. "They're wanting a number that is highly memorable. It just makes for easier marketing."
“人们试图购买的数字有一定的模式，”她说。“他们想要一个非常令人难忘的数字。这只是让营销变得更容易。”
